ｼｰﾋﾞｰｱｰﾙｲｰ／首都圏の大型物流施設の空室率は４･３％（2013年第3四半期）英文｜物流ﾆｭｰｽ

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■ｼｰﾋﾞｰｱｰﾙｲｰ／首都圏の大型物流施設の空室率は４･３％（2013年第3四半期）英文

Logistics vacancy rate up 1.6 points to 4.3%, but net absorption third highest on record in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
High level of pre-leasing in Kinki Region

CBRE released today the Japan Industrial and Logistics MarketView for Q3 2013, covering leasing market trends and forecasts for large multi-tenant logistics properties in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area and the Kinki Region.
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The vacancy rate for large multi-tenant logistics facilities in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) rose marginally to 4.3%. Occupied space increased significantly.
No let-up in demand in the TMA, likely keeping vacancy below 10% even when supply peaks in Q1 2014.
The competitive leasing environment in the Kinki Region is pressuring the acceleration of tenant occupancy plans.
In Q3 2013, the Tokyo Metropolitan Area vacancy rate rose by 1.6 points quarter-on-quarter to 4.3%. The rise in the vacancy rate was smaller than expected, with two of the four facilities completed during the quarter securing tenants off-plan, and Japan's largest facility, Logiport Sagamihara, completed with around 60% occupancy. Net absorption in Q3 was at its third highest level since surveys began in 2004. In particular, the Misato area in Saitama Prefecture and the Kashiwa area in Chiba Prefecture attracted demand because of relatively low rent levels and easy access to central Tokyo, leaving almost no large spaces available. As a result, owners have become more confident, and rents are rising both for new and renewal leases. Rents are also largely unchanged in the Sagamihara/Atsugi area despite the large new supply.
"The trend for third-party logistics (3PL) companies to integrate operations into large facilities is likely to become even more widespread given the associated cost reductions," says Junichi Taguchi, managing director of CBRE's Industrial Services Department. "Development will continue through 2015 and beyond, with no immediate concern about oversupply, especially given the growth seen in Q3 demand."
This quarter, there was particularly strong demand from retail stores, especially supermarkets, convenience stores and drug stores, but also clothing, accessory, furniture and mobile phone retailers. The restructuring of shipments from logistics centers has spread from sundries such as food and everyday items to sectors including consumer electronics and precision equipment. Companies are leasing space for a number of purposes, including cost/asset management, modernization of delivery systems, and business continuity planning (BCP). The supply of high-specification buildings has spurred use of the advanced logistics systems of 3PL companies, encouraging latent demand. Development projects in the TMA have also increased. The third quarter saw an additional four projects due for completion in 2015, as a series of projects got off the ground, developed by Mitsui Fudosan, Global Logistic Properties and Goodman Japan, among others. Japan Logistics Fund continues to push ahead with the first redevelopment by a J-REIT of a facility in its portfolio.
Among facilities due for completion in Q4 2013, tenant inquiries are expected to increase for the facilities in the coastal Chiba area, as currently there are almost no facilities available in the competing areas of Kashiwa and Misato. Tenants have also been found for 35% to 70% of facilities in the Sagamihara/Atsugi area where development is being concentrated in advance of the opening of the new expressway. The outlook for demand is showing no sign of weakening yet, with several facilities due for completion in Q1 2014 already full and no longer seeking tenants. Even assuming a normal level of demand, the vacancy rate is likely to be kept below 10% in Q1 2014, when the new supply is expected to peak. Although landlords may well try to attract tenants with more accommodating lease terms around the time of completion, rents are expected to remain on a slight upward trend overall.
However, rising construction costs are a major concern, and several projects have had their completion dates pushed back. A key question is whether this cost trend will have any impact on rents or building specifications going forward.
In the Kinki Region, the vacancy rate was 1.0% for the quarter. The Goodman Sakai facility, due for completion in 2014, has seen strong leasing progress thus far. Shippers and 3PL companies are increasingly selecting facilities at a very early stage, out of concern that they will not be able to secure sufficient space after completion.
For further details of market trends and forecasts as well as detailed market data by area, please review the Japan Industrial and Logistics MarketView Q3 2013 which is scheduled for release on October 31.